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Stock Trading Disaster (std) Prevention

December 27th, 2009 admin No comments

I thought such an eye-catching title would be appropriate for an article on risk management. Often times, beginning traders forget the fundamentals of proper trading in their quest for instant riches in the stock market. Those of us who have been trading for some time now are fully aware of the danger in that type of thinking.

I was a cocky beginning trader. Soon after attending a stock trading seminar, I had several big wins. In my own mind, I was the exception to any and all stock market trading principles. I could do no wrong. My short-lived reign as a trading Adonis came to an abrupt end. All my money began raining down into the pockets of real stock market professionals. Fortunately, I wised up before it was too late.

In short, I was a young punk who knew everything about nothing. I often times had to learn things the hard. Learning to trade in the stock market was no exception. So, here are my top three ways to prevent an STD.

#3 Way To Avoid An STD

Perform thorough market research! Taking proper research for granted is a one-way ticket to Brokeville. Trust me, I know. Due diligence is required in order to side step a poor stock decision. Remember, getting into a bad trade is simple…getting out is costly. Give market research the time and attention it deserves.

#2 Way To Avoid an STD

Remove hope from your emotional make up when trading! Wishful thinking is a dangerous mindset to be in when you are a stock trader. Hope and wishful thinking lead to irrational decisions based on emotions rather than factual information. Going down with the ship is far from an act of nobility. You will make mistakes. As a trader, you must be willing to make corrections quickly. In the stock market, making too many errors, too fast will certainly cause you to be prematurely ousted from the markets if you do not adhere to the method #1.

#1 Way To Avoid an STD

Make use of a protective stop loss! After placing your order, ALWAYS set a protective stop. Failure is not to far off in the distance for a trader who handles the duties of risk management in the absence of a stop loss. A stop loss is not perfect but the only insurance policy a trader has against stock trading career ending losses. Stop being a philanthropic trader who continues to give money away to the markets.

Using a protective stop loss continues to be the most effective method of risk management. Fortunately, it is also the easiest of the three to apply. Methods 1 and 2 are developed over time as you gain experience. Simply use my top three ways of preventing an STD and you have cut your chances of getting burned.

Where To Spread Bet During The Credit Crunch

December 25th, 2009 admin No comments

In such volatile times there will always be opportunities to make a profit and plenty of opportunities to lose more.One industry that has been thriving is the spread betting industry. Whilst there is currently a ban on shorting financial stocks, investors are still enjoying the ability to buy and sell indices like the FTSE 100, thousands of other stocks and shares, forex markets, crude oil, gold etc. etc. Naturally many investors like the fact that there are no commissions or brokers fees and that spread betting profits are tax free*. That is all well and good. Although at this point I should mention that spread betting is not a one way street, it carries a high level of risk to your funds. You can lose more than you initially invest. It does not suit all investors. In short, you should only speculate with funds that you can afford to lose. And, like the adverts say, ‘ensure you understand the risks and seek independent financial advice if and when necessary’.The above pros and cons are not the only considerations in today’s volatile market.For the investors across the world there are further important considerations:1) Am I trading on a stable platform? If I need to make a trade or close one now will the platform be up and running or down for ‘essential maintenance’?2) Are my funds safe? Or if the company in question goes bankrupt do I lose everything I have on deposit?3) What happens if I trade on a particularly volatile day? How can I reduce my downside?These are questions you should be asking yourself in order to help minimise your risks.Most of the big, established spread betting companies answer these questions quite well. For example, IG Index recently reported, “during one week in October we took over 700,000 trades in a period of high volatility, but our platform was 100% reliable with absolutely no downtime”What about my funds on Deposit? FinancialSpreads.com, IG Index and the other established firms segregate your funds in a designated account. The account is ring-fenced from trading activities and covered by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme to make sure your money is safe. What happens if I trade on a particularly volatile day? How can I reduce my downside?Again, the spread betting companies have moved on from the days of ‘if you lose, unlucky’. The firms now offer a variety of options. FinancialSpreads.com, for example, attaches a Stop Loss to every single opening trade you make. So if your trade goes wrong your bet will be closed out when the market hits the Stop Loss. It should be noted that Stop Losses are not guaranteed, eg if the market gaps then your trade will be closed at the next level the market trades at.One of the ‘relatively new’ companies, ShortsandLongs, has gone one step further and attached a Guaranteed Stop Loss to every single opening trade you make. I say ‘relatively new’ because ShortsandLongs is a new service but operated by Spreadex. Spreadex is an established operator that has been in the market since 1999.The Guaranteed Stop Loss works just like a Stop Loss. If your trade does not go according to plan it will be closed out when the market hits the Guaranteed Stop Loss. However, if the market gaps then your trade will still be closed at the level of the Guaranteed Stop Loss, not the next traded level.A number of companies, now offer Guaranteed Stop Losses. The trade off is often a slightly larger spread however that can be worth the peace of mind (and…reduced risk).In such volatile times there will always be opportunities to make a profit and plenty of opportunities to lose. Make sure you are not losing money for the wrong reasons.* Tax law can change and/or may be different if you pay tax in a jurisdiction outside the UK.

A Simple 5-step Trading Plan

December 23rd, 2009 admin No comments

As a beginning stock market trader, I frequently visited an unpleasant place called Loss Vegas. It was teeming with would be investors and traders with grand aspirations of making a killing in the stock market. Differing life experiences, bank account balances, and strategies separated them but they were all bound by the possibilities of great riches there for the taking. Some were even aware of the chances of success being less than ideal and were not deterred. I could be counted among those who would not be denied.

The numbers don’t lie! 9 out 10 stock traders will fail, miserably! That is the same ratio for starting a business. At least in the case of running a business, there’s a 5-year failure window. I would say that a very small minority of beginning traders makes it past their first year. The reason for such an unbalanced success/fail ratio is simple. 9 out of 10 people entering the market would be better categorized as gamblers and not traders. Yes, I too, was one of those gamblers masquerading as a stock market trader.

Successful traders employ proven, winning trade strategies. Most beginning traders systematically make the same mistake over and over again. Venturing into the market without a sound trading plan is financial suicide. Here is a guide to structuring your own winning trading strategy.

Many principles of running a successful business can be applied to stock trading. Having a trading plan is essential to the success of your new venture. Consider this trading plan to be your road map that guides you to stock trading mastery. Skipping this step will ensure your permanent residency in Loss Vegas.

The trading plan must outline the why or purpose for trading the markets. If your purpose is to simply make money, you are in for a rude awakening. The number one objective of a stock trader is to trade well NOT make money. Focusing on trading well will result in you making money. Making profitable trades is a by-product of trading well. Calculating profits while practicing your trade is counter-productive to your efforts. You certainly wouldn’t want a lawyer tabulating his fees while researching your case, would you? The same focus needs to be applied while you trade. There will be plenty of time for counting your windfall once you have closed out your position.

After committing yourself to learning to trade well, the next step in the process is executing the plan. This includes but is not limited to:

1. Conducting Market Research-stock selection, risk/reward ratios

2. Pinpointing Entry Points

3. Money Management- where to place protective stops

4. Establishing Exit Points

5. Trade Review

I use this exact process when trading stocks and options. Deviating from your trading plan can hinder your progression as a trader in two areas. First, the effectiveness of a trading strategy cannot be accurately measured when a trader is inconsistent in the execution of a trading strategy. And secondly, altering your strategy in the midst of a trade is hazardous to your wealth. A prime example would be moving your protective stop in the opposite direction of your trade. This allows for a wider, much riskier stop loss cushion. Moving protective stops in the opposite direction of the trade is a sure sign of a rookie trader.

Following this simple formula will not eliminate visits to Loss Vegas but will ensure shorter, less frequent stays. Happy trading and here’s to your success!

Trading the Markets and the Financial Recovery

November 18th, 2009 admin No comments

With the world in recovery mode, many people are still questioning how the financial markets got so out of control. They are also questioning something a little closer to home; how to better look after their own money and finances.If we are being honest with ourselves, we would probably admit that we can improve on at least one of the following; long term investments, tax efficiency, actively reviewing our existing investments and looking at new opportunities that the markets in 2009-2010 have provided / will provide.Also, I don’t think that there are many of us who wouldn’t benefit from putting more thought and effort into these key areas. Having said that, there are a growing number of individuals who are making use of a newer, and highly regulated, form of trading.One type of trading, namely financial spread betting, has a range of attractive features and is an option worth considering as part of your portfolio.When speculating though you must always remind yourself that the markets can go down as well as up. With spread betting you can lose more than your original stake or investment.But why trade if there is a risk?Whether you have an existing investment plan or not, it always worth considering any avenue that offers quick, simple access to the markets and a range of tax-free* advantages. Spread betting is one such avenue.Of the many other advantages, spread betting profits do not incur capital gains tax*. You are not actually buying and selling any assets or stock or shares. You are simply speculating on the future price or value of a financial market.A boon for many spread bettors is the sheer convenience of trading over the phone and online, even after the main stock markets and futures exchanges have closed.Another plus point is that there may be occasions when an investor wishes to close a spread bet early. This can work in two ways. It can help you limit a losing position or it can also help you lock in profits on a winning trade.The Financial Services Authority regulates the spread betting companies. This helps to ensure a certain level of quality or, more importantly, financial protection. With regulated companies like paddypowertrader you can trade some markets 24 hours a day, including key Forex and Stock Market Index markets. Naturally, you can also trade Crude Oil, Gold, UK and US shares and so on.So whilst there are a good number of positives, it is important to understand the negatives.Spread bets do carry a high level of risk so you should only speculate with money you can afford to lose. Before you trade, please ensure that spread betting matches your investment objectives, make sure you familiarise yourself with the risks involved and seek independent advice where necessary.* Based on current UK Tax law. If you pay tax in a jurisdiction other than the UK then this may be different.

Beware the Hype in Options Trading

November 14th, 2009 admin No comments

Selling education on options trading is a big business. We see infomercials on television and receive emails advertising free trading software and foolproof trading systems. Unfortunately, there are many “snake oil salesmen” operating in options education. They are busy selling the dream of instantaneous riches without effort – and their price tag isn’t cheap.I recently came across the following statements on option education web sites or advertisements for those web sites:

Make all the money you ever dreamed of trading options! Trade options like a pro tomorrow! Want to make 627% trading options?

The first statement doesn’t even deserve comment. The second statement is extremely misleading. It is certainly true that ordinary people of average intelligence can learn how to trade options – but it won’t happen tomorrow! Learning the fundamentals of options terminology, how options trade, how they are priced, and then all of the different options trading strategies and their behavior in differing markets simply does not happen overnight. It requires time, effort, and practice. In my experience, a minimum of six months is required for the fundamental education, paper trading, and then some taste of success trading in small lots before scaling up in volume.The advertising line, “Want to make 627% trading options?”, is preposterous, but apparently it sells and brings in people. Certainly, it is possible to make returns of several hundred percent trading options. But it is also true that you could easily lose 100% of your money very quickly if you did not know what you were doing. Options trading strategies with the potential of several hundred percent returns are inherently trades with low probabilities of success. So, yes, I would like to make 627% trading options, but the presumption in this advertisement is that you can do that on most, if not all, of your trades. That is simply not true.If you are interested in learning to trade options, here is a checklist to ensure your success:1.    Find a reputable options education firm.2.    Continue your search if the options education firm hypes the potential returns or suggests this will be quick and easy. 3.    Check references from former students.4.    Expect to spend at least three months learning the fundamentals and trading on paper.5.    Hire a trading coach who will be on call to help and answer questions as you begin to trade with real money (this will actually save you money).6.    Scale up slowly.Learning to trade options and generate a steady income from the markets is indeed feasible. But it requires time, effort, practice, discipline, and coaching to be successful. Don’t be deceived by the hype.

Option Expiration and Exercise

November 10th, 2009 admin No comments

Beginning options traders often make costly mistakes due to either a lack of knowledge or misinformation about the basic parameters of options and their exercise. Examples of common errors include being surprised that one is unable to close an index option position on the Friday before expiration, or being surprised by an unhedged option exercise during expiration. This paper covers some of the basic concepts surrounding option expiration and how options are exercised. Be sure you understand the settlement, exercise, and expiration characteristics of the options you trade.Option ExpirationEquity options expire on the Saturday following the third Friday of each month. It is common to hear or read that equity options expire on that third Friday. While that isn’t technically correct, it is true that Friday is the last opportunity to trade those options. Saturday expiration was established to give the brokerages time to settle the accounts before the options technically (legally) lose their value.However, some (but not all) index options cease trading at the close on the Thursday prior to expiration and those positions are reconciled on Saturday based upon the settlement price established on Friday. For example, the SPX index options cannot be traded after the close on the Thursday before expiration; but the settlement price, usually reported as SET or $SET, is established Friday morning based on the opening price of each of the 500 S&P stocks. Since many stocks do not open immediately at the opening bell, the settlement price will differ from the SPX opening price on Friday. Option ExerciseThe owner of an equity option has the right to buy or sell 100 shares of the underlying stock anytime before expiration. If you are long the option (i.e., you originally bought it), you may or may not choose to exercise the option you own; it is entirely your choice. If you are short the option (i.e., you originally sold the option), it may be exercised against you at any time. Typically, you will receive an email from your broker after the market close, notifying you of the exercise. You may be exercised for only a portion of your option position, e.g., only 2 of your 10 contracts. If you were short call options, you will now see a short stock position in your account, i.e., you were obligated to sell the stock at the strike price. If you were short put options, the exercise forces you to buy stock at the strike price, resulting in a long stock position in your account. When options contracts are first created, exercise is specified in one of two different ways: American style or European style. American style options can be exercised on any business day prior to expiration, whereas European style options can only be exercised at expiration. All equity options are subject to exercise American style, while most index options are European style, e.g., the SPX. But there are some exceptions with a small number of index options settling American style, e.g., the OEX.Upon expiration, your broker will automatically exercise any expiring options in your account that are $0.05 or more ITM (in the money) in accordance with Options Clearing Corporation regulations. If expiration is approaching and the stock price is near your strike price, and you do not want to hold either the long or short stock position that will result from the exercise of your long option, sell the option before the market closes on the Friday of expiration week. If you are holding a European style index option position and wish to close it before expiration, be sure to complete those orders before the market closes on Thursday before expiration. If you wish to exercise any of your long equity options, you must issue an order to your broker before the market closes on the Friday of expiration week. It is generally good practice to close option positions before expiration to avoid unpleasant surprises.Option spread positions always have a short option position by definition, so they are subject to exercise at any time. However, the long option protects you in this situation, e.g., if I am holding a 10 contract spread and I receive a notice of exercise from my broker for 3 of the short options, I simply ask my broker to exercise 3 of my long options to cover the exercise.In practice, it is rare that your short option positions will be exercised against you before expiration. But, as noted above, your long option position protects you against this exercise. In general, put options are rarely exercised unless there is less than $0.10 of time value left in the option. The same is true of call options with one major exception: calls are often exercised just before a stock goes ex-dividend, e.g., if the call has $0.10 of time value remaining, but the dividend is $0.50 per share, it may be advantageous to the option owner to exercise the option and hold the stock through the ex-dividend date to collect the dividend payment. Sometimes an option will be exercised against you in a situation where it makes no sense whatsoever and is probably a mistake or due to inexperience of the person on the other side of the trade.If you are holding a vertical spread position going into expiration, there are several different situations possible. If both of the options are fully in the money, your broker will automatically exercise both of the long and short options and credit your account with the spread amount less commissions. However, if the stock price closes expiration Friday within the spread, the situation is a little tricky and the results may surprise you. For example, if we were holding a bull call spread, the short OTM call will expire worthless and the broker will exercise the long call on your behalf, resulting in shares of stock in your account the following Monday (and perhaps a call from your broker if your account does not have sufficient cash to buy the stock). If you do not want to purchase the stock, you should close the spread before the market close on the Friday of expiration week.Credit spreads can also result in surprises at expiration. For example, if I hold a bull put spread and the underlying stock closes Friday of expiration week at a price within the spread, my short put options will be exercised against me, resulting in a long stock position in my account. The long put option does not protect me because it expired worthless.In general, if the stock price closes on expiration Friday within the strike prices of my vertical spread, it will result in either a long stock position or a short stock position in my account the following Monday. Unless you are willing to hold that stock position, it is usually best to close the spread on Friday. Many traders adopt a general rule of closing all option positions the week before expiration to avoid the surprises that are all too common the week of expiration.

Spread Betting on the Financial Markets

October 24th, 2009 admin No comments

Are you looking for a safer entry route in the capital markets? In the last few years there has been a lot of innovation in the financial markets; some good, some not so good. So what markets to trade and, more importantly, how to trade them?One option is spread betting, in the past this form of trading has had a reputation of letting you make quick profits and even quicker losses. It was always a bit of a rollercoaster. The leading spread betting companies have now introduced a number of ways to help to restrict your losses. Spread betting is a quick and tax free* method of trading and, therefore, it does have its appealing aspects. These days though, with financial spread trading, you can limit your downside. Of course, as with all investments you should exercise more than a little caution.Spread betting on the financial markets offers more than just tax based advantages. For example, you can enter into a trade to buy or sell shares without actually owning them. So if you think a share will perform poorly you can speculate on it to go down. This is also known as ‘shorting’.You can also bet against a wide range of other markets eg you can spread bet on Gold, Crude Oil, the FTSE 100, Dollar/Euro, Pound/Yen etc to go down. Naturally, you can also speculate on these markets and thousands of others to go up.Personally, I also like the fault that the whole process is regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority. This helps ensure your funds remain safe.If you financial spread bet, the range of possibilities is quite impressive and growing by the day. As you can see from the above, you can trade shares, forex, commodities and indices. More recently you have been able to trade bonds, interest rates and even house prices. Financial spread trading is based on speculation of the future movements of the markets. Hence there is an inherent risk associated with the decisions you may undertake. However, there are various methods available in order to reduce your risk. One such option is the Guaranteed Stop Loss order. This is an automated order that ensures that your losses are limited. It can also be wise to trade in small stakes as this is a simple way of reducing your risk.Note that spread betting carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all classes of investor. Only trade with money that you can afford to lose. Make sure you fully understand the risks involved. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.* Tax law is subject to change and may differ in jurisdiction outside Ireland or the UK.

Vertical Spreads and Implied Volatility

October 20th, 2009 admin No comments

One will commonly hear or read the following “rule of thumb” for options spread trading:When implied volatility is high, sell credit spreads and when implied volatility is low, buy debit spreads.Unfortunately, this is simply not true. The credit spread and its corresponding debit spread at the same strike prices will always have virtually identical returns on investment (ROI). This paper addresses the role of implied volatility in the vertical spread, both at initiation and over the course of the trade.BackgroundVertical spreads derive their name from the wall originally used to display option prices when they were first traded in Chicago many years ago. The months of expiration were displayed horizontally across the top of the board and the strike prices were displayed vertically along the left edge. Thus, spread trades using two options at two different strike prices in the same expiration month were in the same column and thus constituted a vertical spread. This includes bull call, bear call, bull put, and bear put spreads.Similarly, horizontal spreads are created by buying and selling options from the same row – different months of expiration, but with the same strike price. Horizontal spreads are also known as calendar spreads or time spreads.Diagonal spreads are created when different strike prices and different expiration months are used – thus, a diagonal line across the board between the option sold and the option purchased. An example would be buying the September $300 GOOG call and selling the July $320 GOOG call to create a diagonal bull call spread.Vertical spreads either require a net investment to initiate (a debit spread) or we initially receive money into our account (a credit spread). For this reason, it is common terminology for us to say we are “buying a call spread” when establishing a debit spread and “selling a call spread” to refer to initiating a credit spread. Bull call spreads are created by buying a call and selling another call at a higher strike, or farther OTM (a debit spread). A bear call spread is created by buying a call and selling a lower strike price call, or farther ITM (a credit spread). Similarly, a bear put spread is established by buying a put and selling the lower strike price put that is farther OTM (a debit spread). And a bull put spread consists of buying a put and selling another put at a higher strike price, farther ITM (a credit spread).  Credit or Debit?There are many decisions made before we put on a trade, but for this discussion we will assume that a vertical spread strategy has been chosen as the optimal trading strategy for this situation. The next decision is whether to use a credit or a debit spread.  The maximum potential gain for the vertical spread, all variables held constant except the choice of calls or puts, will be indifferent to whether the trade is established as a credit or debit spread. For example:GOOG closed at $310.71 on October 5, 2005.  If one were bullish on this stock, one could place an Oct $310/$320 bull call spread for a debit of $430 ($960 – $530) and a maximum potential gain of 133%, assuming expiration with GOOG trading above $320.Similarly, one could place an Oct $310/$320 bull put spread for a credit of $560 ($1400 – $840) and a maximum potential gain of 127%, assuming expiration with GOOG above $320.The small difference between the two returns is insignificant; we are using the closing bid and ask prices for these options, and the option prices are very fluid, so picking prices at any arbitrary point and getting exactly identical results would be unusual.  The conclusion is that any difference in returns between a credit and debit spread for the same underlying stock, strike prices, and expiration month will be small and temporary, because market forces will quickly adjust them to parity.It is commonly taught that one should establish a credit spread when placing a trade with high implied volatility (IV) options and a debit spread with low IV options. But the previous example illustrated identical returns for the credit and debit spreads.  So, in that example, we would be indifferent to placing a debit or a credit spread. But let’s take it a step further.We will use the Black-Scholes model to compute the theoretical prices of the GOOG $310 and $320 options from the previous example, but with IV boosted up to 60% (the actual IV values in the above example ranged from 33% to 34%). Now the spread values become:The Oct $310/$320 bull call spread could be placed for a debit of $436 ($1613 – $1177) and a maximum potential gain of 129%, assuming expiration with GOOG above $320.Similarly, the Oct $310/$320 bull put spread could be placed for a credit of $563 ($2058 – $1495) and a maximum potential gain of 129%, assuming expiration with GOOG above $320.Thus, if we were considering placing a bullish vertical spread on Google, the returns would be virtually identical whether the IV was 34% or 60%, or whether we used a credit or debit vertical spread. The higher IV value increased the individual option values dramatically, but the spread values were unchanged. Higher IV does result in higher option prices, but in a spread, we are both buying and selling that high value.I also computed these option values with IV adjusted to 20%. As we see below, at this very low IV, the returns for the credit and debit spread were still identical so there would be no advantage to placing the debit spread for this low IV stock as some have taught.The Oct $310/$320 bull call spread could be placed for a debit of $381 ($580 – $199) and a maximum potential gain of 162%, assuming expiration with GOOG above $320.Similarly, the Oct $310/$320 bull put spread could be placed for a credit of $623 ($1084 – $461) and a maximum potential gain of 165%, assuming expiration with GOOG above $320.However, the returns for both spreads at IV of 20% are higher than we saw with the other examples with volatilities of 34% and 60%.  This is consistent with the overall financial laws of balancing risk and return, i.e., higher returns always carry higher risk. This example has us placing a bullish spread on a stock currently priced near the bottom edge of the price spread; the stock price must make a significant price move of over $9 before expiration for the spread to achieve maximum profitability.  However, the low implied volatility tells us the probability of a significant price move is low.  Therefore, the returns will be higher, commensurate with the lower probability of success, and therefore, a higher risk of loss.These examples illustrate two important conclusions:•    The returns for a credit spread and a debit spread placed at the same strike prices for the same equity or index will be identical. Any price differences seen in the marketplace will be transient, as arbitrage will quickly bring the prices back to parity.•    The level of implied volatility (IV) is not a consideration when placing a vertical spread and deciding on a credit or debit spread. High IV does increase the individual option prices, but we are both selling and buying option premium in a spread, so the returns for the credit and debit spreads remain identical.Changes in IV During the TradeThe maximum profitability of a vertical spread, once placed, cannot change due to changes in implied volatility after the trade was initiated.  The initial investment and the width of the spread are fixed; therefore, the maximum potential return is fixed.  This is equally true for both credit and debit vertical spreads. However, the time decay curves of the spreads are affected by changes in implied volatility.  The value of the spread varies with time to expiration, implied volatility, and the price of the underlying stock.  Of course, interest rates and dividends will also affect spread values, but these will be less significant effects. Experienced spread traders know that even though the underlying stock price may have moved as predicted above or below the spread strike prices, the spread cannot be closed for a value close to the maximum theoretical profit until close to expiration. The value of the spread will gradually approach the maximum profit as the time value of the options decays away.Increasing implied volatility (IV) during the trade results in the time decay curves being flattened so that the value of the spread approaches the ultimate value at expiration more slowly.  Therefore, the probability of closing the trade early for a majority of the maximum profit is reduced. We won’t illustrate it here, but the flattening effect on the time decay curves due to increasing IV during the life of the trade is identical for credit and debit vertical spreads.  Therefore, if one is expecting a large IV increase, such as in advance of an earnings announcement, there is no inherent advantage to either a credit or a debit spread.  But one should expect to have to carry the trade closer to expiration to achieve a majority of the potential profit if IV increases.Vertical spreads have an inherent advantage over long or short option positions in that the ultimate profitability of the vertical spread is unaffected by IV changes while we are in the trade.  By contrast, if we buy a call option in anticipation of a positive earnings announcement, we may be disappointed in the results. Most likely, IV will decrease dramatically following the announcement, and this will drive down the value of our call option. This negative effect may be of equal or greater magnitude than the positive effect on our call option due to the increased stock price.Decreasing implied volatility (IV) during a vertical spread trade results in the time decay curves spreading out so the value of the spread approaches the ultimate value at expiration more quickly. This effect on the time decay curves due to decreasing IV during the life of the trade is identical for credit and debit vertical spreads. The maximum profit available hasn’t changed, but the prospect of closing the trade early for a large portion of that maximum profit is now more probable.ConclusionsThe maxim to use credit spreads when implied volatility is high and debit spreads when implied volatility is low may be a confusion that arose out of long and short option positions.  It is indeed true that one should consider buying low volatility options and selling high volatility options. If we are considering a long call or put position, we would look for options with low implied volatility because these are inexpensive options. And similarly, we would target high IV options if we were considering a short call or put position.However, when playing the stock’s directional move with a vertical spread strategy, the choice of a credit or debit spread is largely a personal preference.  Some prefer a credit spread because they can earn interest on the credit monies in their accounts while in the trade; another advantage of credit spreads is fewer trading commissions (assuming the spread is allowed to expire worthless).  Others prefer debit spreads because they have spent the maximum that can be lost on the trade; there is no possibility of an ugly surprise later if the trade turns against them (as there is for a credit spread).  The returns for credit and debit spreads will be identical and IV levels will have no effect on the returns.  The effect of the volatility (either high or low) effectively cancels itself out by the opposite nature of the two legs of the spread.  Thus, vertical spreads are an excellent way to trade high volatility options when establishing a long or short option position would be both expensive and risky.The change of IV during the course of the vertical spread trade will shift the time decay curves. Decreased IV will make it easier to exit the spread early for a large portion of the maximum profit, while increased IV during the trade will make it more likely one will have to take the spread into expiration.  But the ultimate profitability of the spread is unaffected by the change in implied volatility.

Put Time On Your Side

October 20th, 2009 admin No comments

Many conservative income generation trading strategies depend on the time decay inherent in options pricing. When I establish an iron condor well OTM (out of the money), I am selling option spreads and expecting those spreads to slowly lose value as the underlying stock or index trades within a channel. Other traders may use butterfly spreads or place OTM credit spreads on one side only (calls or puts); all of these trades are based on time decay working in the trader’s favor. This is in contrast to the long option position designed to benefit from my prediction of a particular directional move for the underlying index or stock. Those positions lose value over time if the predicted move does not occur, so time is not your friend for those trades.

One of the items on your checklist before making a trade should be a glance at the calendar to see if any exchange holidays are upcoming. When time decay is on your side, exchange holidays are also your friend. If the market isn’t open, it can’t move against your positions, but time decay is still occurring and improving the profitability of your position. I will often establish my OTM credit spread positions before long holiday weekends to add to my edge.Another important factor to keep in mind is the historical seasonality of volatility. Trading activity slows during several of the holidays every year, as traders take time off to be with their families and exchange business tends to slow. March and October have historically displayed the highest volatility for the year, whereas the summer months and the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day are historically slow periods of market activity. An old wall street maxim is “sell in May and go away.” It refers to the tendencies for many market participants to take vacations and long weekends over the summer, resulting in lower trading volumes and lower volatility. This tends to favor strategies like iron condors that benefit from slower moving, sideways markets.Another factor tracked by many traders is which monthly options cycles have 5 weeks and which only have 4 weeks. Option prices will be skewed because of the number of days in an option cycle.  If your trading style involves consistently selling premium each option cycle, you should be aware of the five week option months, since the amount of premium income may be affected.Options trading strategies that benefit from the time decay of options prices are attractive for monthly income generation. Pay attention to the calendar and put time on your side.

Facts and Fallacies About Risk/Reward Ratios

October 19th, 2009 admin No comments

One will commonly hear or read the following “rule of thumb” for trading:Only trade positions with potential profits of at least three times the potential loss.This sounds like a reasonable rule, risking a little to make a lot. However, it ignores the probabilities involved. Buying a lottery ticket for $1 to potentially make one million dollars certainly meets this criterion for a good trade. But we intuitively know that the odds against us winning are astronomical. This paper will define risk/reward ratios, define the concept of expected value, and begin to explore the relevance of these concepts to success in trading strategies.Risk/Reward RatiosIf we are considering an investment where the maximum gain we can expect is $100 and the maximum loss that we may incur is $500, we would compute a risk/reward ratio of 500/100 or 5:1 (five to one) . This is a high risk/reward ratio in that we stand to lose a large amount compared to the maximum gain. The trading rule above of “potential profits of three times the potential losses”, would result in a small risk/reward ratio of 1:3.Expected ValueThe probabilities of the various outcomes of a proposed investment are often overlooked. When someone tells you an investment will return 300%, but doesn’t tell you the probability of success, you are missing critical information necessary to make a decision about that investment. When one accounts for the probability of the profitable outcome, one computes the expected value, sometimes called a risk adjusted return on investment.For example, let’s assume we are considering a covered call on IBM and the called out return is 4% for IBM closing over $90. If we were to determine the probability of IBM closing over $90 is 65%, then we would say that the expected return or risk adjusted return is 2.6% (0.65 x 4%). We can take this analysis one step further by accounting for the probability of loss. Using the same IBM covered call, let’s assume we have a stop loss order entered that we believe will take us out of the trade with a 8% maximum loss. Now our expected return has two terms:Expected Return = (probability of gain) x (maximum gain) – (probability of loss) x (maximum loss), or,Expected Return = (0.65)(4) – (0.35)(8) = (2.6) – (2.8) = -0.2%Therefore, if we were to place this trade many times, our expected return, based on the probabilities of gain or loss, would be a net loss of 0.2%. One could improve this strategy by either improving the probability of success or tightening the stop loss to reduce the maximum loss.High Probability TradesTrading strategies can be positioned in a variety of ways resulting in a broad range of risk/reward ratios. One extreme category may be called the high probability trades, i.e., trades that have probabilities of success of 85-90%. One type of option spread strategy, known as the iron condor, can be positioned in such a way as to have an 85% probability of profit. On the surface, that sounds very attractive. However, the losses for these trades can be quite large, even though their occurrence is unlikely. For example, a typical iron condor might be characterized as having an 85% probability of achieving a 19% return but a 100% loss with a 15% probability of occurrence. The expected return:Expected Return = (0.85)(19) – (0.15)(100) = 1.2%Or the calculation can be done with the dollar amounts. The 19% gain could correspond to a $1,600 gain and a maximum loss of $8,400. The expected return is:Expected Return = (0.85)(1600) – (0.15)(8400) = 1360 – 1260 = $100Therefore, trading this strategy over time and many trades is going to be close to break even, and probably a loser after trading commissions are included. Let’s consider the opposite style of trading and then draw some conclusions.Low Probability TradesLow probability trades are akin to the lottery ticket, i.e., the maximum loss is small, but the probability of success is also extremely small. There is a category of option spread known as “far out of the money vertical spreads”. The basic characteristic of this trade is a small maximum loss, but with a high probability of incurring that loss. An example might be a vertical spread that only cost $130 to establish, but could potentially return $870. Since the maximum loss is $130 with a probability of success of 12.5% and the maximum profit is $870, the potential gain is 669%, so the expected return is:Expected Return = (0.125)(669) – (0.875)(100) = 83.6 – 87.5 = -3.9%or,Expected Return = (0.125)(870) – (0.875)(130) = 109 – 114 = -$5So, the expected values of this low probability strategy result in small losses over time.ConclusionsTrading strategies come in all sizes and shapes to suit anyone’s style and risk preferences. But the reality is that none of these strategies have an inherent advantage. Some trading education firms and authors of trading books will often claim that they have found the holy grail of trading and have the “best” trading strategy. Each trading strategy has its own set of advantages and disadvantages. In addition, if each trading strategy was applied in a blind, “ put it on and let it run” methodology, the net results would be very similar: near break even or a small loser over time. However, the pattern of the results would be quite different. For the examples above, the high probability trading strategy would have many small positive gains throughout the year, but would be expected to have a small number of large losses that wipe out the gains. Whereas the low probability trading strategy would have a small number of large gains, but those gains would be wiped out by a large number of small losses.Therefore, one must manage the trade in such a way as to develop a probabilistic edge. The best analogy is a Las Vegas casino. If you analyze any of the games played in the casino, you will see that the odds favor the casino. The casino has a small probabilistic advantage, so the owners know that over time, they will come out winners. In stock and options trading, one must understand the probabilities and have developed a trading system that gives the trader a positive edge. You want to learn to trade like the casino, not the gambler at the tables.